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Tim's Thoughts

21 Feb 2024

Investment Post

As 2024 unfolds, I reflect on where we are and based on the presumption history always repeats itself, I ask after recent events, are we looking into a period like the 1920’s, 1970’s, or a repeat of the last few years? As each of these may require a somewhat different approach to  your portfolio going forward. The PE (the number of years earnings it takes to get your money back) of the now called super seven, the top tech stocks in America, is now over 50! They are responsible for a large element of the increasing share valuation of growth…

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Tim's Thoughts

31 Aug 2023

Investment Post

As we sit indoors with rain and overcast skies whilst watching stories of holiday-makers suffering wildfires and 45-degree heat in Europe! the world seems full of contradictions. Markets similarly are performing in unexpected ways with tech taking off at a tear this year whilst some safer assets, after a short resurgence, are again lagging. The key issues we see to pay attention to are demographics and changing climate over the long-term, inflation, interest rates and political fractiousness over the short to medium-term. The fastest ever rise in interest rates has, so far, had a mixed effect on its target inflation.…

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Tim's Thoughts

01 Feb 2023

Investment Thoughts

As we move into the year markets have got off to a strong start, however, for the next six months at least, I believe they will continue to be volatile. Inflation, Energy issues, the War in Ukraine, Global food challenges, and Covid, are all still very much with us and investment markets always hate uncertainty. China’s recent decision to abandon its zero Covid policy very abruptly, whilst hopefully rebooting its Economy this year is currently causing some further disruption in supply through absenteeism in factories, due to the virus. There are mixed views on the extent Economies & Individuals are…

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Tim's Thoughts

01 Sep 2022

Investment Thoughts

As we move into the second half of the year after a tough first, markets are showing some signs of life, however, they continue to be challenged after their post-covid recovery. Inflation, Energy shortages, the War in Ukraine, the threats from China over Taiwan, the increasing risk of global food shortages from the War and the exceptionally warm and dry summer, covid, transport issues, raw material shortages, (it’s a long list!) have all had a major impact on the world and investment markets, which always hate uncertainty. Covid is still with us, the biggest challenge with it now being the…

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Tim's Thoughts

02 Feb 2022

Investment Thoughts

It has been good to see some of you in person again recently, which I hope will continue over the course of this year. As  the year unfolds, much happened during the latter part of 2021 in the UK and globally to challenge markets, after their strong post-crisis recovery. Inflation, Covid, transport issues, raw material and energy shortages, budgetary and taxation issues, new technology and political turbulence are all having a major impact on the world and subsequently markets. Covid is still very much with us, albeit, that globally hospitalization and death rates are coming down.  Hopefully, as global vaccination…

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Tim's Thoughts

20 Oct 2021

Investment Thoughts

As we enter the last quarter of the year much has happened this year in the UK and globally to challenge markets after their strong post-crisis recovery. Covid, transport issues, raw material and energy shortages, inflation, budgetary issues, new technology and political turbulence are all having a major impact on the world and subsequently markets. Covid is still very much with us, albeit, that the death rates are starting to come down from the horror of the last year. Hopefully, as global vaccination takes hold, things will continue to improve and we will not have the setback of a new…

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Tim's Thoughts

01 Jul 2021

Investment Thoughts

As we move into the second half of the year we do so with some excitement for the ability to enjoy a hot summer, as the Government looks to lift the majority of remaining restrictions on July 19th. In terms of vaccinations, 45 million people/ 86% of the UK population have received their first dose and 34 million people are fully vaccinated, having received their second. This uptake in the vaccine provides strong grounds for businesses to reopen and become less dependent on the support the Government has provided, which will give businesses more room to deal with the complications…

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Tim's Thoughts

01 Feb 2021

Investment Thoughts

We start the New Year with both optimism and trepidation. Optimism that eventually the vaccines will allow a return to normality, sooner rather than later, and that the Brexit deal will settle down into a viable one for Business. Trepidation that further complications may arise with COVID-19 and that firms will run out of money before they can reopen or that new ways of working under the Brexit trade deal damage their business. The implications of this, I believe, are that we will continue to see some market volatility over the course of 2021, hopefully, settling down after that. Income…

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Tim's Thoughts

01 Jul 2020

Investment Thoughts

As I write this quarterly update, it seems the Economy and markets have much in common with the weather - the rain is coming down now and then the forecast is for a mini heatwave next weekend! So far this year, we have seen violent swings in markets from all-time highs during February in America to the fastest ever falls in March, and then back to highs in some places in July. Our view is that this is what we will continue to see for at least the rest of the year. The pandemic has created havoc in Economies globally,…

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Tim's Thoughts

01 Jun 2020

Investment Thoughts

As I am writing this my partner has just driven off with our two youngest on their way back to school. Hopefully this is a good sign of the beginning of the end of the worst of this crisis. Companies have behaved very differently at this time to any other period in my career by way of cutting / suspending dividends faster and more brutally than before in  previous Economic crisis. This is a reflection of two very different issues, in some cases this is strong companies just adopting a prudent approach to ensure they remain in a good position…

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